$32M Zambia Emerald Auction: Market Recovery Insights
From GUILD Institute of Gemology President Featured in Roskin Gem News
From August 25 to September 11, the globally renowned gemstone mining company Gemfields held an auction of rough emeralds from the Kagem mine in Zambia in Bangkok, Thailand, attracting widespread attention from the industry. Ruby, President of GUILD Gem Laboratories, and Andrew Lucas, President of GUILD Institute of Gemology, were invited to attend the auction and gain in-depth insights into the auction dynamics.
Regarding the auction, Andrew Lucas, President of GUILD Institute of Gemology, previously published an introduction and trend analysis about the auction, which has now been included in the Roskin Gem News Report. Below is the report from Roskin Gem News.
Entering the Bangkok Auction
After a year of oversupply, tax changes, and mining suspensions, Zambia's emerald industry may have finally found a foothold. At Gemfields' high-quality rough emerald auction in September 2025 in Bangkok (held alongside the Bangkok Gem & Jewelry Fair), all 38 auction lots were sold, generating a total revenue of $32 million. This result indicates that demand is improving, though it remains to be seen whether this marks the beginning of a sustained rebound.
From Uncertainty to Cautious Optimism
The situation was tough by the end of 2024. At Gemfields' previous high-quality emerald auction held in November of that year, only 30 out of 43 lots were sold, generating total revenue of $16.1 million—far below expectations. The new export tax imposed by Zambia on rough emeralds added uncertainty, leading the company to suspend mining at the Kagem mine in April 2025. When the tax was later canceled and signs of renewed market interest emerged, mining resumed in May.
By September, market participation had increased: the number of invited companies rose from 56 to 65 compared to the previous year, and Gemfields reported that bidding activity exceeded expectations. The company called this result encouraging and noted that high-quality goods sold at more solid prices.
Prices Firming, but Caution is Needed
The Bangkok auction offered approximately 199,000 carats of rough—almost the same as in 2024—but the average price reached $160 per carat, up from $113 previously. While this doubled the total revenue, it is important to view this price increase with a sense of perspective. The downturn in 2024 was largely driven by oversupply and lower-quality materials, so the price strengthening mainly reflects the market returning to pre-oversupply levels, rather than reaching new highs.
Nevertheless, dealers described the color and clarity of the gemstones as good, with deeper blue-green and pure green hues being particularly popular. The uniformity of the auction lots was also unusually consistent, making it easier for manufacturers to assess and match stones. Some of the material came from an exploration area called "Underground Tops," which produced exceptionally high-quality rough, signaling potential for future production.
Among the notable lots on display was a specimen named "Embu" (meaning "buffalo"), weighing 11,685 carats, showcasing the scale of Kagem's operations.
Implications (and Limitations) of Rough Sales
Andrew pointed out that the results of the rough emerald auction can hint at trends for faceted gemstones in the future, but this is not a guarantee. An increase in rough prices is typically a precursor to rising prices for faceted stones, but in the context of global economic uncertainty, buyers remain cautious. Most participants in this auction were cutting companies from Jaipur, India, with a few from Bangkok and Israel. No Chinese buyers participated this time.
The Kagem mine itself remains vast—currently about two kilometers long and 165 meters deep—which adds complexity and cost to operations. Mining deeper and further means slower production speeds, increased fuel consumption, and higher mining costs.
Gemfields at a Financial Crossroads
Despite the success of the Bangkok auction, Gemfields' mid-year financial data paints a more conservative picture. According to National Jeweler, the company's revenue for the first half of 2025 dropped by 47% to $64.2 million (compared to $121.4 million in the same period in 2024), while the company turned from a profit of $13.7 million to a loss of $24.6 million.
Management attributed the loss to production disruptions in Zambia and Mozambique, domestic unrest in Mozambique, and weaker demand in some luxury product categories. CEO Sean Gilbertson described the first half as "challenging," citing cash flow pressures, but expressed a "cautiously optimistic" outlook for the remainder of 2025.
Gemfields has been cutting costs, selling non-core assets—including the $50 million sale of Fabergé to SMG Capital—and focusing on operational efficiency. The company's newly built PP2 ruby processing plant in Mozambique is expected to double throughput, which could provide the much-needed revenue diversification, though its results will take time to materialize.
Market Background: Slow but Steady
Overall luxury spending has cooled, but the high-end jewelry market's demand for high-quality colored gemstones continues to provide some stability. Dealers point out that high-quality Zambian emeralds remain in demand, though this category represents only a small portion of total production. At present, the limited supply of high-quality materials has more impact on supporting prices than a surge in consumer demand.
Outlook
Gemfields' September auction brought not celebration, but cautious reassurance. It indicates that, even amidst financial pressures and global headwinds, the Zambian emerald market is still able to attract competitive bidding for high-quality materials. Whether this momentum can be sustained will depend on the speed at which the company stabilizes its operations and whether demand for high-quality emeralds can last through to 2026.
As Andrew said, "If you want to understand the future trends of the faceted gemstone market, look at the rough market." Currently, this outlook appears somewhat clearer—but still through a cautious lens, rather than a rose-colored filter.
