When gold prices fluctuate violently and the trends of traditional assets are difficult to predict, have you noticed the other picture presented by the colored gemstone market? On one side, top gemstone prices break records repeatedly, with frequent good news from auctions; on the other, market procurement is increasingly cautious, and volume continues to shrink. Behind the phenomenon of "price warming" coexisting with "procurement cooling", what market logic is hidden? This year, the GUILD inspection team continued to track multiple colored gemstone mining areas, rough auctions, and international jewelry shows, attempting to sort out a clear thread from source to terminal.
Supply Side: Intensifying Scarcity and Industrial Adaptive Adjustments
Global colored gemstone supply is undergoing a systematic reconstruction. Most major categories generally show declining production. Behind this lie both objective limitations of natural resource depletion and uncertainties brought by human disturbances and geopolitical conflicts. Industrial policies, environmental shifts, and even international trade relations of various countries are reshaping the global colored gemstone supply landscape.
The GUILD team recently visited the Brazilian market for inspection. This "core engine" that once contributed over 60% of global colored gemstone production is trapped in difficulties due to the dual pressure of internal policies and external tariffs. The strict licensing system (averaging 6-12 years) severely constrains production capacity; large-scale lithium mining impacts gemstone veins; and the US policy of imposing 50% tariffs has stalled traditional global trade paths. Brazil's predicament clearly indicates that the colored gemstone supply crisis is no longer a single issue of geological reserves, but the result of multiple factors including policy restrictions, industrial conflicts, and the international trade environment. Specifically for each colored gemstone category, this structural supply-demand pressure manifests in different forms.
- Emerald: Coexistence of Stable Commercial Grade Supply and High-Quality Scarcity
Emerald market supply presents a typical binary pattern of "stable commercial quality, scarce high-quality rough". Zambia, as a global core production area, has the Kagem mine operated by Gemfields as a stable supply source for commercial-grade emeralds, but production has been adjusted down compared to 2019 due to increased mining depth and difficulty; large crystals from the Grizzly mine are mostly commercial quality. The Swat production area, after experiencing licensing turmoil, has stabilized despite small production. Brazil's Belmont mine has increased rough supply for nine consecutive auctions; the next is expected to offer about 300kg of rough, but only 5kg can reach the Vivid Green ABC grade—again confirming the industry rule that "high-quality rough in any mining area accounts for only a very small portion".
2. Sapphire: Supply Tightening in Traditional Producers and External Environmental Impact
Supply pressure in the sapphire market mainly comes from capacity contraction in traditional producers and geopolitical disturbances.
Sri Lanka, as a traditional production area with a 2,500-year mining history, maintains stable production but remains at a generally low level; output of large-particle high-quality sapphires has significantly decreased. The predicament of Madagascar, the world's largest sapphire producer, is more prominent. The number of miners in the Ilakaka basin has sharply decreased from 60,000 in 1999 to hundreds today. The Piémonté deposit variety that once produced sapphires similar to Kashmir has nearly disappeared, and capacity has significantly declined compared to 20 years ago.
Kashmir sapphires have long entered an extremely rare collection level; their production peaked between 1880 and 1890 and significantly declined by the 1930s; production in the Mogok region of Myanmar decreased due to situational changes. Other basalt-type sapphire production areas in Africa also face challenges. Although Nigeria and Cameroon produce large amounts of rough that flow into the Thailand and Sri Lanka markets, the production of basalt sapphires in the Aksum region of Ethiopia has significantly decreased due to regional situational changes.
3. Ruby: Prominent Scarcity of Large Carat Top Quality
Global ruby production continues to tighten, and scarcity concentrates on "large carat, high quality".
Mozambique, as an important ruby production area this century, has Gemfields, the main operator of the Montepuez ruby mine, indicating a decline in production, especially for high-quality Pigeon's Blood rubies; it is now extremely difficult to find top-grade rough over 5 carats.
The situation for Myanmar rubies is more special. Although the proportion of Myanmar rubies in the GUILD laboratory has increased, the actual production in Mogok remains at a low level due to domestic situational changes. Currently, some high-quality Myanmar rubies on the market mostly come from secondary market returns: due to high ruby prices, these existing gems are being resold. This supply tightness continues to push ruby prices higher.
4. Other Colored Gemstones: Specific Varieties Face Supply Challenges
Besides Ruby, Sapphire, and Emerald, the supply crisis for niche colored gems is also significant, and is mostly directly related to production area policies and safety events.
Regarding Paraiba Tourmaline, two main Paraiba Tourmaline mines in Mozambique were affected by safety events last year, impacting operations; the mines were damaged, and the current recovery progress is unclear; although a mine in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil still produces rough material, large-scale mining activities are not currently underway.
Brazil's tourmaline core production area, Cruzeiro, saw production decline in 2025 due to capacity adjustments, but mine reserves are sufficient; supply can be restored quickly if market demand rebounds; however, affected by the survival environment of the overall mining enterprise in Brazil, small and medium-sized tourmaline mines will find it difficult to form effective increments in the short term.
Regarding Spinel, the production of Jedi Spinel from Namya and Man Sin in Myanmar has significantly decreased; Mahenge Spinel production has also fluctuated. High-quality gems are in short supply, and global demand for high-quality spinel continues to exceed production.
High-quality vivid green and mint green varieties of Tsavorite, as well as high-quality rough of "Lagoon" color Tourmaline, have limited production; even production areas such as Nuristan, Afghanistan, cannot fully meet market demand.
Demand Side: Consumer Market Differentiation, New Forces Reshaping Landscape
When the supply side undergoes deep reconstruction, the demand side is also undergoing a silent revolution. In June this year, McKinsey released the "2025 Global Consumer Status Report: When Disruption Becomes the Norm", revealing that the deep changes in current consumer behavior are mainly reflected in five major trends: digital channels win users but not trust; Gen Z becomes the new consumer force; consumers prefer local brands; value decision-making methods change; and time spent online alone increases.
New Trend of "Regionalization, Localization"
The McKinsey report's analysis conclusion on "consumers tend to prefer local brands" is reflected in the global colored gemstone trade flow. The GUILD President found during the Brazil inspection: the "globalization process" of colored gemstone trade, once linked by global shows, is gradually turning towards a new trend of "regionalization, localization". She shared: "In the past, the 'stage' for Brazilian practitioners was global; Basel, Hong Kong, and Tucson shows filled their schedules. But this inspection found this model is being broken." Many local practitioners have reduced or even cancelled long-distance exhibition plans. The core reason is the high cost of intercontinental travel, and the change in purchasing power of traditional main markets has made the cost-performance ratio of long-distance trade significantly lower. This shift from "global layout" to "focusing on regional markets" is the micro reflection of the reshaping of the global trade landscape in the colored gemstone industry.
New Consumer Forces and Aesthetic Shift
Macro changes are becoming clearer in the specific performance of the colored gemstone market. Taking emerald consumption as an example, there is obvious differentiation in global regional markets: consumption in China has decreased, Europe and America markets remain stable, while India shows a "all categories rising" trend. Jaipur, India, as a global cutting center, can digest the entire mine output, process emeralds of all qualities, and precisely match different finished goods to the global market, forming a complete industrial ecosystem.
Meanwhile, emerald consumption preferences are undergoing an aesthetic shift led by Gen Z. In the US and China markets, a "slightly lighter vivid green emerald" is rapidly becoming popular. Its bright, light tone and high saturation not only present better visual impact on mobile phone screens but also better fit the aesthetic habits of young consumer groups (such as Gen Z). More importantly, the price of such emeralds is more accessible, precisely matching the consumption psychology of young groups pursuing "high looks, light burden". From the supply side, vivid green emeralds account for 28% of total mine production, far higher than the 5% of traditional vivid green facet-grade rough. This structural advantage resonates efficiently with the new consumer demand brought by the rise of Gen Z, opening a new path for sustainable growth in the market.
New Balance of Procurement Strategy and Market Vitality
From observations of global major jewelry shows, market vitality and procurement strategies are being reconstructed. Although this year's Bangkok Jewelry Show was smaller in scale, the number of customers is not only increasing, but customer types are more diverse, with more powerful Indian customers coming to purchase. The Hong Kong Jewelry Show shows a trend of returning proportion of overseas traffic and more buyers looking for good gems. It is worth noting that a common phenomenon appeared at both shows: the procurement behavior of large Chinese buyers has become more cautious, with not only a decrease in the number of buyers but also a significant reduction in single purchase volume.
Regarding sample collection analysis, the sample collection data of GUILD Gem Laboratory also confirms this trend—total submitted batches increased, but the number of gems per batch decreased, reflecting that the market is generally adopting a "small batch, multiple batches" procurement strategy. However, it is worth noting that the sample collection volume of other laboratories during the shows was also considerable.
Despite procurement behavior becoming more cautious, the success of the Gemfields Zambia Kagem mine emerald rough auction—140kg of rough sold out completely, and the majority of exhibitors at various shows feedback business as "good" to "excellent"—indicates that the fundamentals of the colored gemstone market remain solid. The current market is not weak, but is reconstructing amidst differentiation.
Market Signals and Future Predictions under Supply-Demand Game
Under the background of "supply" decreasing and "demand" changing, will there be a comprehensive price surge? The answer may not be absolute, but based on the evolution of current consumer behavior, the future market may present more refined structural differentiation.
Top gems (investment and collectible level), such as large Pigeon's Blood and top Kashmir Blue, due to absolute scarcity and strong financial attributes, prices will continue to climb, becoming part of important asset allocation. Commercial gems (mass consumer level) supply is relatively stable; their price increases are more affected by the macro economy and consumer confidence, with moderate expected increases.
Rough auction results have become an important leading indicator for faceted gem prices. Gemfields emerald auction price per carat unit rose from $113 in November 2024 to $160 in September 2025, an increase of over 40%, presaging that future faceted emerald prices will adjust synchronously. Similarly, the amazing performance of rubies at international auctions, such as a 5.33 carat natural unheated Mozambique ruby sold for 4.318 million HKD at Sotheby's, also provides a clear signal for its market price trend.
The evolution of the future market will be more complex, depending not only on the balance of supply and demand fundamentals but also on multiple factors such as national policies, international situations, and consumer confidence. However, what can be determined is that the colored gemstone market has entered a new development stage, characterized by the highlighting of resource scarcity value, diversification of consumption demand, and higher requirements for the professional capabilities of market participants.
Conclusion
The global colored gemstone market is heading towards a more mature, transparent, but also more complex new stage in the rebalancing of supply-demand relations. For industry participants and collectors, in an environment where uncertainty is the norm, it is even more necessary to pay attention to source dynamics and understand the industry cycle; read consumer changes and gain insight into new demands; trust professional institutions and rely on data for decision-making.
Scarcity is always the final anchor of value. In this era where "good goods get more expensive and more sought after", what truly stands the test of time are always those gems that combine scarcity and aesthetic value and can pass professional inspection. Reading the deep logic behind this supply-demand reconstruction is the key to finding opportunities and grasping certainty amidst change.
