As the Awakening of Insects approaches, all things begin to sprout. Unlike the vibrant spring of 2023, March 2024 saw a somewhat sluggish rise in temperatures.
A year later, the winds from Southeast Asia bring a slightly different sensation compared to previous years. As the only authoritative gemological laboratory to fully participate in all four international jewelry exhibitions in Q1 2024, GUILD followed the footsteps of the GUILD Gem Laboratories gemologist team. Over the past two months, we have surveyed the market scenes at the Sri Lanka Gem Fair, the USA Tucson Gem Show, the Thailand (Bangkok) International Jewelry Fair, and the China (Hong Kong) International Jewelry Fair, and have gathered some thoughts to share with everyone.
USA Tucson International Mineral & Gem Show — 'A Feast of High-Quality Colored Gemstones'
On February 4, the world's most influential colored gemstone and mineral exhibition, the USA Tucson International Mineral & Gem Show, concluded amidst a fervor. This six-day feast of colored gemstones offered an unforgettable journey for jewelry enthusiasts gathered from around the world.
This year, the GUILD gemologist team participated fully in the Tucson Show again, providing on-site testing services. This marks the 44th Tucson journey for GUILD Gem Laboratories since 1980. Over the years, we have consistently strived to bring authoritative identification services, frontline market information, and new gemological research results to every exhibitor and practitioner, fulfilling our original aspiration to promote the development of the gem and jewelry industry.
The GUILD Gem Laboratories gemologist team conducted in-depth research at this year's Tucson Show, encountering top-tier gemstones, jewelry, and minerals from around the world. Through in-depth interviews with numerous industry professionals, we explored the latest trends in the gem industry and uncovered new products and technologies not yet available on the market.
The Tucson Show is a barometer for the future development of the colored gemstone industry and a hub connecting mining regions and sales for grasping market trends. According to the in-depth observations of Andrew Lucas, Senior Vice President of GUILD Gem Laboratories and a world-renowned gemologist, the 2022 Tucson Show accommodated the explosion of procurement demand in the post-pandemic era, promoting the prosperity of the global colored gemstone market and price growth. The 2023 Tucson Show was relatively stable with a slight contraction in market demand, yet prices for rubies, emeralds, and other rare gemstones at the show continued to rise. Among them, the price increase for sapphires was the most significant.
Focusing on the 2024 Tucson Show, it is not difficult to find that the market is vastly different from the past two years. Combining Andy's comprehensive observations of the four international jewelry exhibitions in Q1 2024, the most notable change is the emergence of a market differentiation trend. On one hand, demand for high-quality gemstones far exceeds supply, leaving little room for buyer negotiation; on the other hand, mid-to-low quality gemstones are showing obvious weakness at the consumer end.
Meanwhile, Andy observed that the quantity of high-quality gemstones at the show is decreasing. He stated: 'International jewelry brands have strong demand for high-quality gemstones and possess powerful bargaining power. They can pay higher prices and offer extensive channels, becoming the most popular buyer group in recent years.'
According to research by the GUILD gemologist team, except for the inaugural Sri Lanka Gem Fair, foot traffic at other major jewelry exhibitions in Q1 this year has decreased significantly. Buyers' procurement needs are more specific; carat weight, size, shape, color, and cut are almost sought according to requirements. Therefore, colored gemstone exhibitors with high-quality 'sized goods' have had a positive experience at major exhibitions.
Taking this year's Tucson Show as an example, exhibitors interviewed by GUILD had varying perceptions: 30% felt business was not good, 35% felt it was passable, 25% felt it was quite good, and 5% felt it created a new consumer trend. This shows a clear change from the generally positive reviews of the 2023 Tucson Show.
Coincidentally, such changes were also reflected in other exhibitions.
Thailand (Bangkok) International Jewelry Fair — 'Heart Must Be Hot, Head Must Be Cold'
Thailand is a globally renowned jewelry market, rich in high-quality products, extensive resources, and innovative designs. Therefore, the biannual Thailand Bangkok International Jewelry Fair (BGJF) is very important for global gem practitioners; the price surge wave of 2023 started right here.
From February 21 to 25 this year, the 69th Thailand Bangkok International Jewelry Fair (BGJF) was held at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Thailand, attracting 1,100 enterprises from 34 countries worldwide, including Thailand, the USA, Italy, Russia, India, China, and Sri Lanka.
GUILD (Thailand) Gem Laboratories, as an authoritative testing agency for the exhibition, provided on-site sample collection and testing services for exhibitors and buyers. Booth numbers: XX-02 and XX-04. We acquired numerous firsthand market information.
This exhibition lasted 5 days with a total of 2,400 booths, attracting over 40,000 attendees, with trade revenue exceeding 3.5 billion Thai Baht. In terms of trade scale, the February Bangkok Show remained flat compared to last year; however, from a foot traffic perspective, this year's Bangkok Show declined by nearly half. According to feedback from senior buyers, 'The biggest feeling at this year's Bangkok Show is the reduced number of people. Last year, it took over an hour to queue, but this year, all entry procedures were completed in ten minutes.'
Meanwhile, 'stable/firm' replaced 'surge' as the popular term to describe gemstone prices. Prices for large-carat high-quality gemstones remain high, but the price increase magnitude has not changed significantly compared to last December. In on-site interviews by GUILD, the most common feedback from domestic gem buyers was that purchase intention was not strong. In contrast, buyers from European, American, and Middle Eastern markets showed strong purchase intentions, with transaction volumes surpassing last year. This sets a tone of steady growth with upward trends for the gemstone market prices throughout 2024.
There are two categories with a clear upward trend: one is various finely cut semi-precious gemstone sets, benefiting from the rise of the young consumer market and improved consumer awareness and aesthetic sense of gemstones, making the young consumer group more willing to pay for craftsmanship and comprehensive gemstone quality; the other is Paraiba Tourmaline. Further tightening of output combined with high market purchase enthusiasm has driven the price of 'Neon Paraiba' to climb further.
GUILD cites the prices of two Paraiba Tourmalines inquired at the Bangkok Show for reference. One mid-to-high quality 2.3ct Brazilian Paraiba Tourmaline was quoted by exhibitors at $17,000 per carat; one medium quality 4.1ct Mozambique Paraiba Tourmaline was quoted by exhibitors at $6,000 per carat.
*The above prices are real-time exhibitor quotes from the Bangkok Jewelry Fair on February 22 local time.
Another significant change at this Bangkok Show is the exhibitors' quotation method. In previous years, the price game between buyers and exhibitors was more like a round of sparring, reaching a transaction through a cycle of quote-negotiation-requote-re-negotiation-deal. This year's exhibitors showed a firmness that surprised practitioners, almost all being 'fixed price, no negotiation'. The narrowing of negotiation space depends on one hand on gemstone prices that have risen through multiple rounds, leaving little room for tug-of-war; on the other hand, it stems from the confidence of the European and American markets in the gemstone market and the decisiveness of procurement.
According to interviews by the GUILD gemologist team with exhibitors, 35% felt business was not good, 35% felt it was passable, 25% felt it was quite good, and 5% felt it was very good. Exhibitors who felt it was very good were mostly ruby and sapphire dealers. They still face strong demand, with procurement from world-class jewelry brands coming in an unending stream, and demand from the Chinese market still exists. In terms of data, 70% of their customers still come from China.
Overall, the trend presented at this Bangkok Jewelry Fair is: 'Overseas market transactions are hot, domestic market procurement is stable'. International market gemstone prices compared to the latest domestic prices are still in an inverted state; the procurement prices for multiple categories of gemstones are even more expensive than domestic sales prices. For domestic practitioners, building a high-quality inventory will become the primary goal.
China (Hong Kong) International Jewelry Fair — 'Category Differences Stem from Market Demand'
Looking back at the Hong Kong Show in March 2023, many exclaimed 'prices are fiercer than tigers'. However, insatiable demand overcame the surging prices, leaving behind many industry records. 'Pearl exhibition area sold out in one day', 'Buyers inquiring in a sea of people', 'Non-sale items bought at a premium'... To this day, the lively scene remains vivid.
In contrast, this year's March Hong Kong Show appeared much calmer, and the number of mainland practitioners visiting the show in Hong Kong also declined.
From a price perspective, prices for high-quality South Sea Pearls (White South Sea, Golden South Sea), Conch Pearls, and Akoya Pearls remain firm. For Tahitian Pearls, except for a very few high-quality Peacock Green pearls, ordinary quality shows signs of a slight decline due to significant short-term price increases. A senior domestic buyer stated: 'There is some room for negotiation for medium-quality saltwater pearls this year.'
It is not difficult to find that medium-to-high quality saltwater pearls, after 3-4 years of continuous price increases, have entered a consolidation period. In the long term, saltwater pearl prices will not change significantly. As an important category for jewelry fast fashion consumption, pearls undertake emerging demands from online live streaming and omnichannel sales, with a stable consumer base. Meanwhile, the production of pearl oysters has not increased significantly in the past two years. Combined with the pearl farming cycle, saltwater pearl prices are expected to remain stable within 3-5 years.
Focusing on the performance of colored gemstone categories at this Hong Kong Show, it reflects a highly differentiated market trend. High-quality colored gemstones are still sought after, with frequent inquiries and transactions. The main reason is that the price surge wave of the past year has made many practitioners clearly recognize that price increases are an irreversible inevitable result of international supply and demand relations. With reduced production, high-quality gemstones will continue to be scarce in the future.
For medium-quality colored gemstones, the market attitude is much calmer, with many buyers adopting a wait-and-see strategy. The most eye-catching performances were Rubies, Sapphires, and finely cut Tourmalines, followed by Opals; sales of fine goods in these categories increased year-on-year. Among them, the main demand for Rubies and Sapphires concentrated on medium-to-high quality gemstones of 1-3ct; the main demand for finely cut Tourmalines concentrated on gemstones with excellent cut and higher comprehensive quality.
Opals show more randomness, mainly depending on their gemological characteristics. Each opal can be considered a separate natural aesthetic work, with different biases towards buyer aesthetics and customer group preferences. Under the trend of personalized aesthetics, the recognition of opals in the consumer market has significantly improved.
According to interviews by the GUILD gemologist team with exhibitors, 50% felt business was not good, 30% felt it was passable, 15% felt it was quite good, and 5% felt it was very good. At the Hong Kong Show, the number of high-quality colored gemstones was not large, and they were least affected, but entry-level colored gemstone categories suffered a significant blow. Buyers squeezing prices while sellers were unwilling to sell became the most prominent feature of this Hong Kong Show.
Overall, the demand from domestic and international buyers at the Hong Kong International Jewelry Fair tends to be stable. The calm performance and wait-and-see attitude of the procurement group mainly depend on practitioners' judgment of the current economic environment, as well as choices combining market differentiation trends and their own inventory situations.
GUILD Notes
Through market observations over the past year, GUILD found that price and value are more like two sides of the same coin; their relationship is very complex yet closely linked. When prices rise, the market's consideration of value becomes more comprehensive; when prices fall, value undergoes many tests. How to output the sense of value contained therein during the rapid price increase of gemstones is of great significance to actual sales and market selection.
Changes in the industry curve test not only the comprehensive qualities of enterprises in inventory, channels, operations, etc., but more directly test practitioners' grasp of category trends and their scrutiny of the global market. Over the years, the wind direction may change, but what remains unchanged is the sincere devotion to the industry and to gemstones.
